What to make of the news....
I heard a great commentary today about what qualifies as “news”: it is information that is either different from or a change from what everyone expects to hear. So what about the news? There is lots of news being reported about the real estate market these days. I keep hearing “on the news” that prices are up, home sales are increasing, things are better; certainly a different message than 6 months ago. Is it all true? Is what they are saying based on fact? Is the market turning, has it bottomed out? Are we on the road to recovery?
Let’s take a look at three indicators of where the real estate market is going in the next few months:
- The accumulation rate.
- The delinquency rate.
- The cure rate.
Accumulation rate – now that’s newsworthy! Have you heard that term anywhere before? Well, I heard it today. I think we all know that the market has been flooded with more homes for sale than there are buyers. Guess what, folks: MORE HOMES ARE COMING. A recent study has shown that there are 7 million Americans SERIOUSLY considering putting their home on the market for one reason or another. (There are 20 million giving it some thought!) To put those numbers in perspective, there were 5 million American homes sold for the entire year last year. What happens when there are more homes for sale than can be sold? Market time goes up, and sales price goes down. Sound familiar? No real “news” there.
Now let’s take look at the latest stats on the delinquency rate and the cure rate for current mortgages. What am I talking about? I am talking about FORECLOSURES. This real estate market is all about foreclosures! In the past, about 45% of all owners who were delinquent on their mortgages were able to catch up, or “cure” their delinquency. How did they do this? Some took second jobs, some borrowed money from friends or family – whatever it took to get current on their mortgage payments. Under current economic circumstances - second jobs are hard to find, and who has money to loan to someone else? -less than 7% of these homeowners are able to catch up! WOW! That means that over 90% of the mortgages currently delinquent will ultimately go to foreclosure…i.e. more homes on the market, prices dropping. Again, I am having trouble finding a change to report…
Ok, what about Wisconsin? Wisconsin missed much of the trauma associated with the earlier busts in California, Arizona, Las Vegas and Florida. Why – because we are a little more conservative here. The extreme highs and lows in the market missed us. We are not, however, escaping the impact of unemployment. What happens when people lose their jobs? It becomes hard, and then maybe impossible, to make their mortgage payments. Guess what? Their mortgage then becomes delinquent, and only about 6.6% of them will be able to cure that delinquency and stay in their homes; the rest will face foreclosure, adding to the number of homes for sale, and again, lowering prices.
Perhaps the real “news” is that nothing has really changed: we aren’t at the bottom of the real estate market yet and prices will continue to fall…..
Posted by:
Cathy Butschke
